Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 92S.INVEST 92S.INVEST Another one near 90S.--Cy10-- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cy10-- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC) 13S.HILWA TCFA.--Cy10-- 02:07, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical storm 13S Now a tropical storm by JTWC, though it hasn't been named Hilwa yet. Probrably will be later today. ''Ryan1000'' 10:36, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 Now a TD. —12R. ''' 12:30, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Well it is now getting less organized as we speak and it has attained peak intensity. Maybe the JTWC were wrong to take it up to C2? —''12R. '' 19:43, February 14, 2012 (UTC) May intensify later I would not take it out so fast as it may intensify later.Allanjeffs 23:57, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Some significant change in the forecast. Was meant to weaken into a disturbance and stay that for the whole existence, however, it is now expected to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm, then weaken back into a tropical depression, then strengthen back into a tropical storm with 40 kt. —''12R. '' 11:24, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 10 And La Reunion have returned to the previous forecast, and only peaked at 30 kt. —''12R. '' 02:09, February 16, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 (2nd time) And we have a TD again, looks like this thing will be going on an intensity roller coaster. —''12R. '' 10:56, February 16, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 10 (2nd time) Yes it is..--Cy10-- 02:07, February 19, 2012 (UTC) At one point, TD 10 was forecast to be a hurricane, and now it doesn't look like we'll get anything at all, not at this rate, at least. Fixed the header BTW (it was suposed to be size 4). Ryan1000 05:10, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 (3rd time) Now forecast to become a MTS. —''12R. '' 12:32, February 20, 2012 (UTC) At least we reach the H letter with this system how many more letter could we have. we will seeAllanjeffs 21:48, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa Now named. —''12R. '' 16:23, February 20, 2012 (UTC) : Finally.--Cy10-- 17:24, February 20, 2012 (UTC) :: It won't do much, but it formed, at least. Ryan1000 18:00, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Extratropical Depression Ex-Hilwa In and out.--Cy10-- 01:41, February 23, 2012 (UTC) Still a depression so it ain't out yet. —''12R. '' 08:38, February 23, 2012 (UTC)\ Remnants of Hilwa Now gone.--Cy10-- 13:15, February 24, 2012 (UTC) 91S.INVEST AOI: Eastern area of AoR RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical storm). —''12R. '' 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC) 91S.INVEST Invested! —''12R. '' 15:37, February 24, 2012 (UTC) TCFA alert.--Cy10-- 06:03, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Gone.—Cy10 04:02, February 29, 2012 (UTC) 15S.NONAME AOI: North of the Mascareignes islands RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical cyclone). Have a look here. —''12R. '' 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC) If that is true we will have two tropical cyclones in this basin next week if that is true we will have Irina and Joni with us.Allanjeffs 00:09, February 22, 2012 (UTC) Looks like this one has the potential to become Irina or even Joni. Which ever low develops into a named storm first. By the way, if we get to Joni, we'd probably slow a bit down in activity in March. This season will most likely get to the K or L storm, if more show up. 01:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC) By the time it makes landfall, the system will just stay there because of the mountains. The GFS forecasting over 350 mm of rain to fall over central Madagascar. However, a few days later it begins to move into the Mozambique Channel and strengthens quite a bit. It'll then make landfall as a tropical cyclone on Mozambique. Of course this is subject to change. —''12R. '' 08:26, February 22, 2012 (UTC) : At worst, this storm could be a re-Hudah and cause signifigant destruction in both Madagascar and Mozambique, but there is also a chance it could not develop past category 1 or 2. It's very large though, so rainfall could be a problem for the folks in Madagascar and Mozambique from this storm. They're still reeling from Giovanna's destruction, but I don't think this storm (future Irina) will be as strong as Giovanna when it does impact Madagascar. Ryan1000 14:41, February 22, 2012 (UTC) ECMWF ensemble System and Most of the available deterministic NWP models suggest that 2 lows may form at the end of the week within the ITCZ; one to the North-East of the Mascareignes islands and the other one over the far east of our area of responsibility. ITCZ outlook from RSMC La Reunion. —''12R. '' 17:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC) 90S.INVEST Now invested! Getting exciting! —''12R. '' 19:07, February 23, 2012 (UTC) I think it's fair to say we will get something out of this now, but I can't really tell how strong it will get. Ryan1000 21:11, February 23, 2012 (UTC) I think this will become a severe tropical storm. Andrew444TalkBlog 20:36, February 25, 2012 (UTC) The models really like this one. They explode it in the next few days and keep it out to sea. The only areas that may need to keep an eye on this are Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 22:53, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 12 Only meant to strengthen into a MTS just now... —''12R. '' 02:24, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 12 Oh well... our hopes of it becoming a ITC are very slim now.. —''12R. '' 12:32, February 29, 2012 (UTC) I would expect cat 2 or cat 3 at most, but yeah, we aren't seeing a cat 4 or stronger storm from this one now. It most likely missed it's chance. Ryan1000 14:08, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Maybe but the only thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpect it so we never can be sure of things.Allanjeffs 01:42, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Although it may not become strong, there actually is a (small) chance this storm could head south of Mauritius and Reunion and hit southern Madagascar as a cat 1, though it would otherwise stay out to sea. However, GFS sees a monster storm coming from behind this disturbance in the next 3-4 days and smashing apart Mauritius and Reunion. That's not a good vision. Ryan1000 14:47, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 12 (2nd time) Back down... in 24 hrs, it should be back up —''12R. '' 22:06, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 12 Well, I can tell you this will not become a C1 —''12R. '' 12:33, March 2, 2012 (UTC) 14S.IRINA 92S.INVEST Now I am confused! This is centred to the northeast of Madagascar and models are showing it hitting Madagascar as a TS and then intensifying in the Mozambique Channel to a TC before making landfall at that strength. —''12R. '' 08:55, February 25, 2012 (UTC) We could hav Irina and Jonni with us by next week but I have question which was the most active year in this basin?Allanjeffs 16:04, February 25, 2012 (UTC) : It was 1964-65 with 17 named storms. —''12R. '' 16:30, February 25, 2012 (UTC) :: No one of the three SHem seasons (AUS, SWIO, or SPAC) has had more than 20 named storms ever. The SPac's most active season was 1997-98 and the Australian Region has had a hard time getting up to 15 storms in any one season, maybe once or twice before but it's not very common. One active year for them was 2005-06. I wouldn't be very surprised if this year's SPac season beats the 2003-04 season as the least active ever in # of named storms to form there, but the Australian region and SWIO basins are about right on where they should be. This thing looks like it's gonna hit Madagascar right about now. Ryan1000 21:28, February 25, 2012 (UTC) :: Very sad to read that Giovanna death toll rise to 31 sorry for them.Allanjeffs 02:39, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 11 Now a ZODW. Should make landfall on Madagascar as a TDi and then brush Mozambique as a TC. —''12R. '' 09:15, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 Rapidly strengthened, however, it should make landfall in a few hours time on Madagascar as a TD. —''12R. '' 09:56, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina Named by Madagascar at 09z. —''12R. '' 12:43, February 26, 2012 (UTC) 33 deaths after Giovanna may sound unfortunate, but if Madagascar hadn't taken those advanced preparations and evacuations before Giovanna, it easily could have killed hundreds of people instead of only a little over 30. They got lucky with her. As for Irina, it's a weak TS as of now and i'm worried more about what Mozambique will have to deal with here than what Madagascar will. Ryan1000 14:17, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Expected to become an ITC in the Mozambique channel. Yqt1001 15:23, February 26, 2012 (UTC) So we got our "I" storm. This looks like another disaster. Andrew444TalkBlog 16:48, February 26, 2012 (UTC) So this is this is the ninth storm of the season we could get 3 more this year maxium 5 I really have fun tracking this year this basin from now on I will track cyclones all over ther world.Allanjeffs 17:17, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Overland Depression Irina It has made landfall.--Cy10-- 19:02, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Irina is expected to become a stronger storm as it heads into Mozambique by tomorrow or Tuesday, but then again, Irina might not stick around for long in Mozambique and head south into the Mozambique Channel and out to sea as GFS indicates. That would hopefully minimize the death toll and damage. They also see that other area of disturbed weather ENE of Madagascar exploding into a monster cyclone over the next few days (Joni), but they keep it out to sea. We'll see how this all pans out. Ryan1000 22:44, February 26, 2012 (UTC) :: You mean northeast of Mauritius? "keep it out to sea" - I don't think so. Ever heard of Mauritius and Reunion? —''12R. '' 22:48, February 26, 2012 (UTC) ::: Future Joni may pose a threat to the islands in the future, but the bulk of it is currently forecast to pass east of Mauritius and Reunion, not directly over it like Hollanda of 1994 or Gervaise of 1975. And they are pretty prepared for cyclones, but if future Joni stalls near the islands, it my pose a flood hazard like Gamede in 2007. Anyways with this storm, let's keep our fingers crossed. After it heads out to sea, it could come ashore again in Mozambique as a pretty sizeable cyclone, but Funso was forecast to do the same thing and it never did. Hopefully Irina won't either. Ryan1000 22:59, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 11 (Ex-Irina) Official name atm ^^ - not expected to strengthen that far anymore —''12R. '' 19:58, February 27, 2012 (UTC) Now made landfall on Madagascar again... oh look... its back in the Mozambique Channel —''12R. '' 12:25, February 28, 2012 (UTC) : It doesn't look like it will be so monstrous for Madagascar or Mozambique after all. And it's not looking very promising that we'll see any big cat 4 come out of 90S either. The SWIO is starting to slow down in activity, but March can still be a nasty SHem month. It's the equivalent of October in the Atlantic/East Pacific, and many of the most destructive and most powerful storms in SHem history have formed after this date. Larry, Monica, Percy, and Hudah are a few good examples. Ryan1000 14:31, February 28, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 (Ex-Irina) Expected to strengthen into a 70 kt TC —''12R. '' 02:25, February 29, 2012 (UTC) And here she comes to Burden again.Allanjeffs 12:52, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Irina won't be as bad as it was earlier anticipated, but it still bears watching. Ryan1000 14:08, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (2nd time) Now back up to MTS status! —''12R. '' 16:27, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Irina looks a bit like Funso when it was in the Mozambique Channel, but I don't know if it will get as strong as Funso did. Ryan1000 00:36, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Looks like Irina would really affect Madagascar directly or the least indirectly.Allanjeffs 01:45, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Irina is currently expected to become a category 1 in the Mozambique Channel (it's almost a hurricane now), and move away from Madagascar and into Mozambique. TS 12 (Joni) is expected to head southward and become a moderate storm as it moves around Mauritius and Reunion, but the GFS forecasts another storm to come behind future Joni (Kuena), and they take that storm up to a category 4 storm sweeping through Mauritius and Reunion. That's forecast to come in the next four days, but although it's too soon to tell as of now, it's not a good thing to see. Ryan1000 14:45, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Irina Finally.—Cy10 03:04, March 2, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region South Pacific Region 10F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 10F And another one...--Cy10-- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. —''12R. '' 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10F Now its a depression. —''12R. '' 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). —''12R. '' 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC) And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC) : Gone.--Cy10-- 20:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 11F.CYRIL Tropical Disturbance 11F New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11F Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. —''12R. '' 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC) 96P.INVEST Now 96P. —''12R. '' 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cyril And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. —''12R. '' 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC) So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.--Cy10-- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It has reached C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.--Cy10-- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Down to a C1 and has moved into TCWC Wellington's AoR. —''12R. '' 19:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Ex-TC Cyril Extratropicale —''12R. '' 19:37, February 8, 2012 (UTC) Down and out.Allanjeffs 20:36, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 13F.NONAME Tropical Depression 13F And who thinks this will become Daphne? —''12R. '' 12:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Maybe. Depends on how conditions will turn out. 21:55, February 14, 2012 (UTC) I don`t think so.Allanjeffs 21:43, February 15, 2012 (UTC) It's not gonna develop, it's being sheared up now. BTW, the Hall of Fame elections are taking place. If you want to vote on your picks from Eric's list of 2012's hall of famers, or make new suggestions for 2012, go there. Ryan1000 23:44, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 13F Gone.--Cy10-- 17:59, February 18, 2012 (UTC) INVEST Not sure where to put this, but it is in the south Pacific atm, off the coast of South America. 1011 mbar. —''12R. '' 11:57, February 16, 2012 (UTC) There never has been a storm recorded in the South Pacific east of 180 degrees west longitude before, and if this one, or if any one, does form in the future, it is unclear how it will be handled. We might as well leave it like this for now. Most of the coast of South America looks clear to me, but I do see one area of disturbed weather that is taking on some tropical charicteristics southwest of Ecuador. No storm has ever been recorded there before. This is a bit bizzare. Ryan1000 23:15, February 16, 2012 (UTC) ::Well the disturbance is located near 10S, and the NHC monitors east of 120W and from 0 degrees to 18.5S. —''12R. '' 23:46, February 16, 2012 (UTC) :::They can monitor it, but my main point was, this still isn't an actual tropical cyclone basin here, like the South Atlantic and Mediterannean. I would be rather baffled if this invest becomes a TS, but if that happens, it will probrably be left as an unnamed storm. It could develop, but I won't count on it now. It lost itself a bit on the latest pic, but it's not gone yet. Ryan1000 00:48, February 17, 2012 (UTC) :::I don`t really think it will form ,but if a miracle occurs and form it will be unnamed I think.Allanjeffs 01:01, February 17, 2012 (UTC) :::How unusual! I didn't think we'd be talking about a Southeastern Pacific invest! Andrew444TalkBlog 01:36, February 21, 2012 (UTC) :::You were a little late andrew.Allanjeffs 02:45, February 21, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yeah, its been gone for quite a while now. —''12R. '' 12:28, February 21, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts. *Iggy - <5% - Probably not. *Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count. SPAC: *Cyril - 0% - No. --Cy10-- 00:27, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. #Iggy - 10% - No. #Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area. SPAC: #Cyril - 0% - No impact. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —''13R. '' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 5% - Meh #Iggy: 3% #Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD —''12R. '' 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC) My turn : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going. : 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him. : 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names. : 5 Jasmine:TBK : Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Might as well: Australia: *Fina - 0% - Nope. *Grant - 23% - Australia has a common track record, but I still don't think Grant should be retired, especially in comparison to what they've seen in the past. *Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant. *Iggy - 4% - Damage, if any, wasn't that bad for Australia. *Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength. South Pacific: *Cyril - 0% - Fishie. Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)